Aslak de Silva, CEO of Selfly Store, works with customers in 20+ countries generating revenue with data and intelligent vending machines.
In an era awash with data, leaders often find themselves paralyzed, waiting for just a little more information before making that crucial decision. But as we navigate an increasingly complex world, one truth becomes evident: Stalling decisions for lack of perfect data can cost us opportunities. Instead, I have found that embracing a bias for action and trusting our gut feelings can often lead to better outcomes, even when the stakes are high.
Data As A Double-Edged Sword
Data is undeniably valuable—it informs strategies, reduces uncertainty and uncovers trends. However, as Daniel Kahneman explores in Thinking, Fast and Slow, decision-making often involves two systems: the fast, intuitive System 1 and the slow, deliberate System 2. While data appeals to System 2, our intuitive System 1 can often guide us when the road ahead is unclear. Overreliance on data can lead to decision paralysis, as leaders may feel compelled to wait for “enough” evidence, even when none will eliminate the inherent risks of the future.
A key takeaway from Kahneman’s research is that intuition, shaped by years of experience in a relevant field, can be a powerful tool—particularly when operating in environments with consistent feedback loops. However, he cautions against relying on intuition where biases or insufficient expertise may cloud judgment.
In my own experience, intuition is most helpful when I’ve encountered similar situations before, whereas I lean on data when navigating new territory. The challenge lies in discerning when intuition is reliable and when a more analytical approach is necessary.
The Danger Of Decision Fatigue
Roy Baumeister’s work on decision fatigue highlights how the sheer number of decisions we face daily can deplete our mental energy, leading to poorer choices as the day progresses. For instance, choosing what to wear the day before can save mental energy for more important decisions in the morning, when your brain is fresh. Similarly, people tend to eat less healthily for dinner because their willpower and decision-making energy are depleted throughout the day.
For leaders, this means that it is not only important to act but also to prioritize and simplify decisions where possible. When Covid-19 hit, I marked in my calendar a training time from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. I had a schedule to follow and had decided what to train. By following the plan, I avoided spending energy deciding whether to train and saved my decision-making capacity for critical leadership decisions.
This experience reinforced the value of preplanning for conserving mental energy for high-stakes choices. Instead of getting caught up in minor operational details, I focused on strategic decisions, such as market positioning and long-term partnerships, that had the biggest impact. By identifying the decisions that truly matter—the ones that shape the trajectory of a company or career—leaders can reserve their mental energy for choices that require deep focus.
Easy Choices Vs. Hard Choices
Decisions can generally be categorized into two types: easy and hard. Easy choices are decisions where the answer is clear and logical—for instance, choosing between two options when one is objectively better in terms of cost, quality or fit. For example, when I was selecting a vendor for office supplies, one company offered faster delivery, better pricing and superior customer service. It was an easy decision that saved time and effort, allowing me to focus on more strategic matters. Easy choices don’t demand much of our mental bandwidth.
Hard choices, on the other hand, are the decisions where no amount of data or analysis provides a clear answer. Whether it’s pivoting a company’s direction, expanding the team or making a significant personal life change, these decisions come with uncertainty. As Claus Raasted shared in his podcast Getting Things Done, “If you can’t really figure out which one is the better choice, then at some point, you need to just decide.”
Hard choices require faith—not in the absence of data, but in the presence of possibility. By taking action, you can embrace uncertainty and learn from outcomes, refining your approach for future decisions.
Balancing Risk And Action
While a bias for action is important, I’ve found that it’s equally important to calibrate the level of risk. For high-stakes decisions, prioritize deliberate consideration and scenario planning. But for lower-stakes or ambiguous situations, overthinking can hinder progress. The key is to assess the potential downsides and decide if the risk is worth the reward.
Key Takeaways For Decisive Leadership
1. Recognize decision fatigue. Conserve your energy for decisions that matter most by simplifying or delegating less critical choices.
2. Embrace intuition. Trust your gut, particularly when data is inconclusive or incomplete. Years of experience have shaped your instincts.
3. Act, don’t stall. When faced with uncertainty, take action. Even imperfect decisions can provide clarity and momentum.
4. Evaluate risk proportionately. Match the level of deliberation to the stakes involved. Don’t let minor risks paralyze major opportunities.
5. Learn and adapt. Decisions are rarely final. Treat each choice as an experiment, and use the outcomes to inform your next move.
Conclusion
Leaders who hesitate, waiting for perfect clarity, risk missing the opportunities that come with decisive action. Effective decision-making is not about eliminating uncertainty but about navigating it confidently. By trusting your gut, prioritizing action and learning from outcomes, you can lead with resilience and agility in an unpredictable world.
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