Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen, Head of Business Development and Co-CEO at The Nearshore Company.
Commercial interests often closely anticipate presidential election years, and the nearshoring trade is no exception. With the recent elections in both Mexico and the U.S., we can read some of the tea leaves and infer that the nearshoring landscape—particularly between these two North American giants—is poised for potential shifts.
Of chief concern to those relying on nearshoring are the economic and trade relationships often in play when administrations change. This is particularly urgent when considering the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026.
Shifting Environments
As noted in a recent report by the Atlantic Council, the successive administrations in both countries will play a crucial role in determining whether the agreement is extended for another 16 years or if the current six-year review cycle is maintained. This makes the elections a defining moment for business leaders invested in nearshoring as they navigate how potential changes in leadership might shape the commercial and regulatory environment across North America.
In Mexico, the June 2024 elections resulted in a victory for Claudia Sheinbaum, signaling a continuation of many of the current administration’s policies. As the former mayor of Mexico City and an ally of outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum is expected to maintain a focus on economic growth and industrial development, including fostering Mexico’s growing role as a nearshoring hub, according to a report by the Wilson Center, a U.S.-based think tank.
The Wilson Center article also notes that Sheinbaum’s administration will likely support initiatives that strengthen Mexico’s position as a strategic partner for U.S. companies seeking to relocate their manufacturing operations closer to home.
However, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of balancing domestic priorities with potential reforms that could influence Mexico’s attractiveness to foreign investors. According to the Brookings Institute, Mexico’s nearshoring opportunities will hinge on maintaining economic stability and addressing challenges such as infrastructure.
Similarly, in the U.S., the election of Donald Trump is expected to have wide-reaching implications for the nearshoring dynamic. Given that tariffs have been a cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 campaign and beyond, it’s possible that any Trump administration-led trade agreements could complicate the nearshoring equation.
Preparing Businesses For The Next Chapter
For business leaders like myself, who are at the forefront of nearshoring initiatives, it’s essential to understand how political shifts may affect operational, investment and strategic decisions. I’ve always emphasized flexibility in our approach to manufacturing and supply chain solutions. However, it’s crucial that businesses prepare for potential policy changes that could either support or challenge the economic ties between the U.S. and Mexico.
To adapt to political shifts and uncertain trade dynamics, business leaders must prioritize flexibility in their operations. In my view, one effective strategy is to diversify supply chains. This means working with multiple suppliers and distribution centers across different regions to avoid overreliance on a single market or geography. Such diversification helps ensure operational continuity even if tariffs, labor laws or logistical challenges arise in one area.
Another essential practice is to conduct regular risk assessments of current operations. Leaders should evaluate how potential policy changes—such as tariffs or adjustments to trade agreements—could impact costs, timelines and market access. Modeling various scenarios helps businesses identify vulnerabilities and create contingency plans that reduce risk.
Investment in technology and data analytics is another way to build flexibility. Tools that offer real-time insights into inventory, shipping and market trends can empower companies to make faster, more informed decisions. Some tools can also provide visibility into regulatory changes, helping companies stay ahead of compliance requirements.
To stay informed on developments, I recommend leaders establish a robust network of advisors and industry partners. This includes engaging with legal experts, trade organizations and think tanks that monitor and analyze shifts in policy and market conditions. Staying connected to industry events and forums also provides an opportunity to exchange insights and learn from peers navigating similar challenges.
Looking To The Future
What remains clear is that both countries have a vested interest in maintaining and strengthening the trade relationship. With just over 78% of Mexico’s exports going to the U.S., and some companies considering expanding their presence in Mexico, the economic interdependence between these nations cannot be overstated.
While political leadership may change, the mutual benefits of nearshoring as a strategy for economic growth and supply chain resilience remain undeniable. For business leaders, the key is to remain proactive, adaptive and informed, ensuring that they can continue to thrive regardless of the external environment.
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